Gold extended gains to within cents of $3,600/oz after soft U.S. jobs data lifted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. U.S. equities hover around record highs as investors weigh inflation prints and shifting yields. The unemployment rate rose to roughly 4.3%, approaching a four-year high, reinforcing the “cooling labor market” narrative.
Fundamental Drivers
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Rate-cut expectations: Softer job creation and higher unemployment increase the odds of near-term policy easing. Lower policy rates typically weaken the dollar and support non-yielding assets like gold.
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Risk appetite vs. valuations: The S&P 500’s record run faces a test from upcoming inflation data and bond auctions that may influence yields.
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Commodities pulse: Oil (WTI) slid 2.1% on the last session amid demand concerns, even as technicals (Williams) turned positive.
Technical Levels to Watch
USD/JPY
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Last move: −0.7%; Stochastic positive
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Support: 144.88
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Resistance: 149.33
GBP/USD
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Last move: +0.5%; ROC negative
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Support: 1.3306
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Resistance: 1.3630
BTC/USD
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Last move: +0.9%; ROC negative
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Support: 109,402
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Resistance: 112,136
WTI Crude (USD)
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Last move: −2.1%; Williams positive
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Support: 58.882
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Resistance: 64.016
Trading note: Watch for momentum confirmation (e.g., Stochastic crossovers or ROC divergence) around these levels. Breaks with volume can open directional follow-through; failed breaks may set up mean-reversion trades.
Today’s Economic Calendar (GMT)
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23:01 — UK BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales
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05:00 — Japan Eco Watchers Survey (Outlook & Current)
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06:00 — Germany Imports & Exports
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15:30 — US 3-Month Bill Auction
Strategy Snapshot
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Gold: Bias higher while rate-cut odds build; watch for pullbacks to prior breakout zones.
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USD/JPY: Dollar softness argues for a downside probe toward 144.88 unless yields rebound.
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GBP/USD: Despite a bullish session, a negative ROC warns of momentum fatigue near 1.3630.
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BTC/USD: Range context; a topside break above 112,136 targets higher liquidity pockets.
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WTI: Oversold bounce possible given Williams positive, but resistance at 64.016 caps for now.
Risk Management
Use position sizing, stop-losses beyond invalidation levels, and avoid over-concentration. Economic releases can trigger slippage—consider wider stops or reduced size around event times.