Economic Indicator Insights for 31 July 2025: What to Watch and Why

On 31 July 2025 financial markets will react to a cluster of economic reports from Japan, France, Germany, Australia and the United States. These indicators – ranging from housing starts to consumer confidence – provide clues about growth, inflation and consumer behaviour.

Japan: Housing Starts and Consumer Confidence

Housing starts

Housing starts count the number of new residential units where construction has commenced. Economists watch this statistic because the housing sector is a significant part of the economy and construction activity has spill‑over effects on purchases of materials, appliances and furnitureinvestopedia.com. The previous reading showed a sharp contraction of ‑34.4 %, and analysts expect a smaller decline of ‑15.8 %. A continued contraction would confirm that high mortgage rates and demographic trends are still weighing on Japanese construction, while a narrower decline might hint at stabilisation. Since housing starts can influence employment and consumer spending, any surprise could influence the Japanese yen.

The Japanese Cabinet Office’s consumer confidence index gauges how households feel about the economy, personal income and job prospects. A high reading signals optimism and tends to support spending, while a low reading suggests cautioncryptodaily.co.uk. The index is expected to edge up from 34.5 to 35.1, still well below the neutral 50 level that separates pessimism from optimism. Persistent weakness in confidence could reinforce expectations that Japan’s economic recovery remains fragile.

France: Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their outputinvestopedia.com. It is a forward‑looking gauge of inflation because higher producer prices tend to lead to higher consumer prices as firms pass costs to customers. In the previous month French producer prices declined 0.8 %, reflecting lower energy and raw material costs. There is no consensus estimate for July, so investors will focus on whether the decline continues, implying weak demand, or whether prices rebound, signalling potential inflationary pressures. A surprise acceleration could add pressure on the European Central Bank to reconsider its monetary stance.

United States: Personal Spending (PCE)

Also known as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), this report measures the total value of goods and services purchased by Americansinvestopedia.com. PCE accounts for roughly two‑thirds of U.S. economic activity; therefore, even small changes can sway expectations for GDP growth and Federal Reserve policy. The previous month saw a slight decline of ‑0.1 %, but forecasters anticipate a rebound to 0.4 %. Stronger spending would suggest resilient consumer demand and may bolster the U.S. dollar and equity markets, while a weaker number could reinforce fears of a slowdown and prompt safe‑haven flows.

Germany: Import Price Index

Germany’s import price index tracks average changes in the prices residents pay for imported goods and servicesbabypips.com. Because imports include raw materials and intermediate goods, rising import prices can signal future inflationary pressure as businesses face higher costs. In June the index fell 0.7 %, easing concerns about imported inflation. Markets expect a more modest decline of 0.2 % for July. If prices drop further, it could provide the European Central Bank with room to maintain accommodative policy; if prices rise, traders may anticipate tighter monetary conditions, affecting the euro.

Australia: Export Price Index

Australia’s export price index measures changes in the prices of all exported merchandise, including re‑exportsabs.gov.au. Rising export prices improve national income but can indicate broader inflationary trends in global commodities. The previous quarter showed a rise of 2.1 %, reflecting robust prices for energy and agricultural exports. There is no published forecast, so analysts will watch to see whether commodity price strength persists. Higher export prices typically boost the Australian dollar and support corporate earnings, but they can also prompt central banks to tighten policy to counter imported inflation.

Conclusion

Thursday 31 July 2025 will deliver a snapshot of global economic health, with indicators spanning housing construction, producer prices, consumer spending and trade prices. Japanese housing starts and consumer confidence will signal whether Japan’s tentative recovery continues; France’s PPI will reveal cost pressures facing manufacturers; U.S. personal spending data will indicate whether consumers remain the engine of growth; Germany’s import price index will offer insight into inflation risks in the euro area; and Australia’s export price index will show whether commodity strength endures.