Economic Event Forecasts for 1 August 2025

Introduction

On 1 August 2025, traders are awaiting several important economic releases that could move the markets. The highlights include the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Commitments of Traders (COT) net positions for the British pound and Japanese yen, the ISM New Orders Index, the Baker Hughes U.S. oil rig count, and the au Jibun Bank manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI). Understanding these indicators and their implications is essential for reading economic trends and making more informed investment decisions.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

The producer price index is one of the most important measures of inflation at the production level. It is defined as a measure of wholesale inflation compiled from thousands of indexes that track the prices received by producers by industry and category and is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsinvestopedia.com. PPI differs from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it measures changes in the prices of goods and services received by producers, whereas CPI measures the prices paid by consumersinvestopedia.com.

PPI data are scheduled for release at 01:30 GMT on 1 August. In the previous reading the index stood at 0.9 % and forecasts suggest it will remain at 0.9 %. A rising index signals that producers’ costs are increasing, which may later feed through to consumer prices and influence monetary policy decisions. A decline, on the other hand, is a sign of weaker inflationary pressure. Traders watch this release to judge whether central banks might lean toward raising or cutting interest rates.

CFTC net positions (GBP and JPY)

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes its Commitments of Traders (COT) report each week, which provides information about the size and direction of positions held by traders in the futures markets in Chicago and New Yorkfxblue.com. Traders focus on “non‑commercial” positions because they reflect speculative positions. Analysing these data helps investors determine whether the current trend in a currency is still healthy or if positioning has become excessivefxblue.com.

• CFTC GBP NC Net Positions: released at 19:30 GMT, the previous reading was £0.6 thousand contracts with no official forecast. A rise in this figure indicates that speculators are increasing their bets on a stronger British pound, while a drop signals a shift toward short positions.

• CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: published at the same time, it shows non‑commercial positions on the Japanese yen. The previous reading reached ¥106.6 thousand contracts. A higher number reflects rising confidence in the yen and vice versa.

COT data help gauge market sentiment and confirm how over‑bought or over‑sold a currency has become; very high positioning can mean a trend reversal is near.

ISM New Orders Index

The ISM New Orders Index is part of the U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing report. It is measured through a monthly survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing companies and is expressed as a percentage of total orders received by manufacturersmarketchameleon.com. High levels of new orders signal strong demand for industrial products and potentially strong economic growth, while low levels indicate weak demandmarketchameleon.com.

The index will be announced at 14:00 GMT. The previous reading was 46.4 points, a level below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. With no official forecast, investors will watch to see whether orders rebound above 50, which would indicate an improvement in the U.S. manufacturing sector. A higher reading supports the dollar and industrial stocks, whereas a low reading could pressure the market.

Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig Count

Since 1944 the company Baker Hughes has published a weekly report counting active drilling rigs in the United States and Canada. This report is considered a leading indicator of the health of the energy sector; a rising rig count points to increased exploration and production activity, while a falling count signals a slowdownbabypips.com. Investors follow these data because they offer insight into oil and gas production trends and can influence crude prices and energy stocks.

This week’s report will be released at 17:00 GMT on 1 August. The previous count was 415 rigs with no official forecast. An increase in rigs may put downward pressure on oil prices due to expectations of a higher supply, whereas a decline may support prices by hinting at potential supply constraints.

au Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI

The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI is released monthly and reflects the business environment in Japan’s industrial sector. It is calculated via a survey of company managers about new orders, sales, inventories, supply chains and industry outlookmql5.com. The Markit PMI methodology uses a representative sample of companies to offer an early picture of economic changesmql5.com. A reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while a reading below 50 signifies contractionmql5.com. Because purchasing managers have early insight into performance, the PMI is considered a leading indicator of economic developmentmql5.com.

The reading will be released at 24:30 GMT (00:30 am) on 1 August. In the previous month the index stood at 48.8 points, a low reading that indicates continued mild contraction, while the current forecast is also 48.8. A rise above the 50 threshold would be seen as a positive signal for the Japanese economy and the yen, whereas a weaker‑than‑expected reading could weigh on the yen.

Importance of the PMI

For those unfamiliar with the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), it is a monthly indicator derived from a survey of manufacturing purchasing managers and measures elements such as new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and employmentnumberanalytics.com. Readings above 50 are a sign of economic expansion, while readings below 50 indicate contractionnumberanalytics.com. Policymakers and investors watch the PMI because it offers an early look at the state of the economy and can influence monetary policy decisionsnumberanalytics.com.

Conclusion

The calendar for 1 August 2025 features a group of indicators that could be potential market movers. The Producer Price Index helps gauge inflationary pressures and forecast the path of interest rates. The CFTC reports reveal how speculators view the British pound and Japanese yen, while the ISM New Orders Index shows the level of demand in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The Baker Hughes report provides insight into the direction of oil production, and the Japanese PMI offers an early read on the health of the industrial sector in the world’s third‑largest economy. Monitoring these indicators and understanding what they mean allows investors to make data‑driven decisions and paints a clearer picture of global economic trends.